Cuban Voter behavior and political predictions for the 2022 midterm elections.

With the 2022 midterm elections here, a lot of attention is being given to South Florida and the voting behavior of Latinos there. This is due to major gains by the republican party and President Trump in 2020 among Hispanics in Miami-Dade. The Cuban American vote is particularly important in this area, and thus, it always gets a lot of attention. The thing is that the Cuban American vote is now not only important in South Florida, but also nationwide, with fast growing Cuban communities in Texas, Kentucky, and other states. In this article, we’ll take a look at the voting behavior and beliefs of the Cuban Voter, as well as take a look at Cuban American political candidates running for office this election cycle. For this analysis, we’ll use the historical FIU polls of the Cuban community, as well as other sources that have studied the voting behavior of Cubans. (Pew-Research and Politico.)

The Cuban Voter

Conservative Republican majority.

The Cuban voter is very well known for its strong partisan inclination towards the Republican Party, but this might be changing, although quite slowly. The last two years has seen the number of independents rise from 21.5% in 2020 to 27.1% in 2022. Republicans have gone down from 52.6% in 2020 to 51.6% in 2022, while Democrats have gone down from 25.8% to 21.3%. Those identifying Republican have stayed at around 50% for the last 15 years (53% in 2008, 56% in 2011, 46% in 2014, 53% in 2016, 54% in 2018), this is a considerable decrease from 1997, when 69% of Cubans identified as Republican.

With high Republican registration in the Cuban community, it would of course be no surprise to find out Cubans consider themselves at least somewhat conservatives. This is measured in the FIU Cuban American poll of 2022, where they ask respondents to rate themselves in a conservative scale from 1-7, with 1 being “extremely conservative”, 7 being “extremely liberal”, and 4 being moderate. The community averages around 3.33, thus leaning conservative. The only group of Cubans that cross to the liberal side (4.43 to be exact) are those registered as Democrats. Cubans not born in the island tilt conservative (3.80), while those who arrived between 2015 and 2022 are the least conservative (3.69) out of those born in the island. Those who came before 1959 are the most conservative (2.90). Non-Citizens measure between Democrats and Republicans (3.72) but still a little more conservative than Independents at 3.75.

Top Issues and approval ratings

The Cuban Community as a whole, and among all different groups, holds the Economy, Health Care, and Immigration as the three most important issues on their mind going into the 2022 midterm elections. Inflation, gas prices and increase in housing costs are common talking points with regards to the state of the economy. Immigration is of particular importance in the community due to the major Cuban migration wave we are in the middle of (for more information click here). A lot of immigration lawyers and Cubans that have crossed the border and gone through the immigration process describe it as a mess. There’s also been a lot of discussion as to what kind of Cubans are coming through the border, with political dissidents in the community pointing at Cubans with long ties to the communist dictatorship being let into the U.S. as one of the main signs of lack of control. The issue of “Cuba Policy” comes in as the 4th most important issue for Cubans born in the island, while dead last for those born in the U.S., the latter instead ranking abortion as 4th.

Biden’s approval rating is particularly low amongst the Cuban voter, with only 32% approving of his job so far. This is exactly 10% lower than his general approval rating according to the 538 aggregate on 11/5/22. The president gets only a 26% approval rating on his handling of the economy, as well as only 28% approval on his handling of Cuba. The president’s major win is in his handling of the COVID pandemic, with 56% approving of his job in this area so far. It is worthy of note that, according to the FIU Poll of 2022, the President is doing VERY well with those that arrived in the U.S. between 2015 and 2022, with an impressive (and very surprising) 64% approval rating – although only 13% of those polled in this group are U.S. citizens and able to vote. Among non-citizens in general, the approval/disapproval of the President is at a 50-50.

When it comes to the preferred GOP presidential candidate in 2024 among GOP voters, 59% rank former President Trump as their favorite candidate, 21% preferred DeSantis, and 20 “other”. Independents rank DeSantis as their preferred GOP candidate with 30%, followed closely by former President Trump at 25%. On the Democrat side, things are a lot less concentrated. President Biden holds 1st place as the preferred Democrat candidate in 2024 with 17% support, followed by Obama with 16%. For those knowing the basics of the constitution would know that the 22nd amendment prohibits Presidents from serving more than 2 terms, effectively disqualifying former President Obama from ever holding the most powerful office in the world. The main takeaway from the Democratic side is that 29% of them do not know who the candidate for their party should be in 2024. On the other side, 38% of independents also don’t know who they prefer as the Democratic nominee. This is particularly bad for democrats heading into 2023, when former President Trump is rumored to announce very quickly after the midterm, and questions about President Biden’s health going into a second term intensify. Not having a few well-known faces in the party to face the electorate will most likely intensify Republican support among the Cuban Community.

Cubans vs Other Latinos

As it should be well known to anyone in the Latino community, we are very diverse. Different Latino groups have very different opinions on almost every issue, and as such, its crucial to compare them with regards to some of the most important issues for voter this election. Cubans are the second most pro-choice group of Latinos, with 67% of them believing in the right of a woman to choose. South Americans are first with 77% and Puerto Ricans third with 62%. Cubans also have the second most favorable view of Capitalism with 70%, only 1% behind South Americans. For comparison, Central Americans have a 56% favorability of capitalism. When it comes to Gun Control, Cubans are the Latino group that gives the least importance to “control gun ownership” at 61%. South Americans are 1st at 80%, Central Americans second at 74%, while Mexicans and Puerto Ricans are tied at 73%.

Cuban American Politicians

House of Representatives

The Cuban Community has a very strong presence in the House of Representatives, and are all currently running for office, with an extremely high probability of reaching the House this following year.

First, there’s a newcomer to the list of Cubans in Federal office. Maxwell Alejandro Frost is currently running as the Democratic candidate for Florida’s 10th congressional district, formerly held by Val Demings. Mr. Frost is only 25, getting national attention as the National Organizing Director of March for our Lives. Mr. Frost is Washington bound since he is the Democratic candidate in a heavily democrat district. This would make him one of (if not the) youngest congressman in the history of the United States.

The second and final Cuban Democrat running for Congress is Robert J. Menéndez Jr, in the 8th congressional district of New Jersey. Mr. Menéndez Jr would be replacing fellow Cuban Albio Sires, who announced his retirement in 2021. Mr. Menéndez Jr. is the son of the long time New Jersey Senator Bob Menéndez, one of the longest serving Cubans in Congress. Mr. Menéndez Jr. will absolutely win his race in the 8th congressional district on New Jersey.

On the Republican side we have multiple Cubans running for office, 3 of them specifically representing congressional districts in south Florida. The first one amongst them is long time Representative Mario Díaz Balart in Florida’s 26th congressional district. Florida’s new 26th congressional district is very safe not only for Díaz-Balart, but also for any Republican. His win and return to U.S. Congress is pretty much guaranteed. The next Cuban representative running for office in South Florida is Carlos Giménez in Florida’s 28th congressional district. The newly redrawn 28th district essentially encompasses the tip of the Florida Peninsula and the Florida Keys. While only a Republican +4 district, this year Mr. Giménez should be winning by more than that, heading back to Congress. The last but not least of the three Cuban representatives from South Florida is also the newest of the three, Representative María Elvira Salazar. Republican Salazar is in the most competitive district out of the three, usually a Democrat +1 district according to 538. Ms. Salazar won her seat in 2020 riding the coattails of an impressive improvement amongst Latinos by Republicans and former President Trump in Miami-DADE county. While a regularly competitive district, she has made major inroads in the district during her 2 years in office, definitely and undoubtedly pushing her over the threshold to win again. She is a crucial candidate to look at during the upcoming election in order to understand more the evolving voter behavior of the area.

There are 2 more Cuban American candidates running for the House of Representatives. The first of the two is Nicole Malliotakis who is running in New York’s 11th congressional district. New York’s 11th congressional district mainly encompasses Staten Island, a safe district for Republicans, Congresswoman Malliotakis will be reelected to the House of Representatives. The final Cuban American running for Congress is Alex Mooney, Republican running for West Virginia’s second district. Encompassing the north half of West Virginia, a solid Republican state, and a Republican +34 district, Mr. Mooney is probably one of the safest seats in the House, a return to Congress is already assured. There will be 2 Cuban Democrats and 5 Cuban Republicans in the House of Representatives in 2023.

Senate

There’s only 1 Cuban politician running for a senate position in the United States this cycle, Marco Rubio. Rubio himself has been a longtime holder of the senatorial position for the state of Florida, first winning in 2010, and then running for president in 2016. Marco Rubio is running against Democrat Val Demings in what usually would be a very close race… that’s not the case today. The Republican Party has made major effort to make Florida into a Republican stronghold, and they are succeeding. Marco Rubio is running on the same ticket as Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, who is probably the most electable and strongest candidate coming out of the Trump wing of the Republican party. When we consider the Republican advances in South Florida, their improvements amongst Latinos, the strength of Marco Rubio and Ron DeSantis as incumbent candidates, the election fundamentals pointing at a Republican advantage, polling, and early voting numbers, it is very easy to see a win for Republicans statewide. Marco Rubio will rejoin 2 other Cubans in the U.S. Senate, Democrat Bob Menéndez of New Jersey and Republican Ted Cruz of Texas.

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