2022 General Election Prediction

It’s election season in the United States, and thus it is time for election watching nerds like me to obsess about Democracy for a week. Normally, this year was supposed to be unexciting, simple, and predictive. It is a historical norm in the United States for the Political Party of the president to lose big in the midterms. For Example, Democrat Lyndon B. Johnson lost 47 House seats in his first midterm, Republican Gerald Ford lost 48, Republican Reagan lost 26, Democrat Clinton lost 52, Democrat Obama lost 63, and Republican Trump lost 40 in 2018. Biden was essentially assured to lose the House from the get-go. A president who has a very low approval rating and only a 4-seat advantage in the house would have been completely slaughtered during a normal year, but after 2020, nothing is normal. Republicans started by shooting themselves in the foot by electing very weak candidates like Hershel Walker in Georgia, Doug Mastriano and Mehmet Oz in Pennsylvania, Blake Masters in Arizona, and a dozen more in House races. Still, they were expected to hold on and stir the ship back on course to a full retaking of Congress, but then came the Supreme Court. In Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization, a conservative court decided to strike down the long-held norm of Roe v. Wade, which guaranteed a federal right of a woman to an abortion. The new decision would leave abortion laws completely up to each state. This fueled Democratic support and a backlash against Republicans. All over the nation, Democrats started to win special elections in places where they previously had no chance. Republicans would then work all summer to bring back attention to other issues like the economy and immigration. Now with only 24 hours left before election day, Republicans are in a situation where they didn’t need to be – only slightly favored to win in 2022 when they should’ve been clear and undoubtedly favorites. Control of the Senate will come down to 4 races – Arizona, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Georgia – while the House is heavily dependent on Republican turnout on Election Day.

SENATE

Georgia

While Georgia is known around the nation for its peaches, this year it is known for the very close race for its Senate seat. For a candidate to win in Georgia, they need more than 50% of the vote. If neither candidate gets 50% of the vote in the first round, the top 2 candidates will head to a run-off in the following months. Democrat Raphael Warnock, reverend of Martin Luther King’s Church, is the incumbent candidate, after winning his special election in a contentious runoff in January of 2021. Republican Hershel Walker, well known ex-football player, is the Trump endorsed senatorial candidate for the state. Georgia was won by President Biden in 2020 by just 0.23%, a major win for the campaign thanks to the extensive organizing efforts of Stacy Abrams, who is now running for governor as the Democratic candidate. Going into 2022, it would’ve been normal to think that Georgia would turn Republican, since there was no way a 0.23% Democrat advantage was going to survive the midterm elections of an unpopular president, but the Republican party of Georgia wanted a challenge. Herschel Walker is very far away from being a good candidate. The Walker campaign has been plagued by scandals, the majority focusing on his extreme beliefs on abortion. Like many in his party, Walker is deeply against abortion, going as far as saying there should be no exceptions to its illegality, not even in cases of rape or incest. His “no-exception” stance, however, has been softened in the last 2 weeks of campaigning, mainly due to multiple reports of him paying for his ex-girlfriends’ abortions. These reports even prompted his son to launch an attack campaign against him on social media. Mr. Walker also has a long history dealing with reports of abuse by his ex-wives, as well as reports of him threatening a shoot-out with police in the past. The Walker campaign has had to deal with other moments that have made the candidate look childish, like when he brought a fake police badge as a prop to a debate claiming it was “real”, Mr. Walker had to then be reminded by the moderators of the debate rules prohibiting any type of props. The fact that Democrat Warnock is in such a close race in Georgia against such a controversial candidate says a lot about the real weakness of the Democratic party in the state. This is best depicted by the strength of Republican gubernatorial candidate Brian Kemp. Republican Kemp is running for his re-election as the governor of Georgia against Democrat Abrams. Kemp, unlike Walker, is very respected by voters in Georgia, has little to no scandals, and is much more attractive to independents and centrist republicans because of his record of defending the 2020 election results against former president Trump. Brian Kemp not only will get more votes than Stacy Abrams, but he will also get over the 50% needed to avoid a run-off. If the Republican party of Georgia had picked a better senatorial candidate (at least not as scandalous) they would’ve unseated Reverend Warnock, but that doesn’t mean Democrats will win the senate this November. Democrats got very lucky on having a strong candidate in Warnock going against a very weak candidate in Walker, but their weak position statewide will prevent them from getting to 50%. Walker’s weakness as a candidate, and Warnock’s weakness as the candidate of the weak party statewide will prevent them both from reaching the 50% necessary to win the Georgia seat.Georgia will go to a runoff, with November 8 results most likely being somewhere around Warnock 48.3%, Walker 47.6%.

Arizona

The “Grand Canyon” state of Arizona is back in the political spotlight with a close senatorial race. Arizona’s senator up for re-election this cycle is Democrat Mark Kelly, a retired NASA astronaut and U.S. navy captain, running against Trump backed venture capitalist and author, Republican Blake Masters. Senator Kelly – much like Democrat Senator Sinema of the same state – has embraced the independent spirit of Arizona politics, a “maverick” spirit left behind by Arizona Senator and 2008 Republican presidential candidate John McCain. Senator Kelly has expressed multiple times his willingness and desire to reach across the aisle and work on bipartisan projects. Senator Kelly has also been openly critical of President Biden’s immigration policies, a every important topic for Arizona voters. What at first seemed a lost race for Republicans, Blake Masters has managed to turn the race competitive in the last few weeks of campaigning. Mark Kelly won the senatorial seat in a special election in 2020 by less than 2.5%, and the expectation was for him to surpass that this year. This was the belief across the political spectrum, to the point of Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell pulling $18 million in planned advertises away from Arizona and towards other states. Despite this, Masters has been able to find other sources of revenue to keep his advertisement campaign afloat. Masters also has gotten lucky with the Libertarian Party of Arizona, with its senatorial candidate dropping out of the race and endorsing Masters. Libertarian candidates usually take away anywhere from 0.5% to 2% from Republican support, Masters getting the endorsement of Libertarians definitely helps him in a close election. The Libertarian candidate will still be in the ballot, but he probably will have less of a negative impact on Masters’ result. Still, there’s some bad news for Republicans expecting a Master’s late comeback and victory. Senator Kelly has a favorability rating of 47%, much higher than the abysmal Blake Masters favorability rating of 32% (for comparison, Biden’s favorability on 11/7/22 is 42%). Masters also has a high unfavourability rating of 48%. The simple reality for the Republican campaign is that their candidate is not popular with the Arizona electorate. Masters’ and the Republican Party of Arizona have done a very good job even with early in person voting, but their strong improvement in the race – while impressive – is not enough to unseat Senator Mark Kelly. Arizona will most likely go to Democrats by around 1.5%, with Kelly getting 50.2% to Masters 48.7%. Still Republicans have done very well, I wouldn’t be surprised if the real number is slightly closer than what’s here.

Nevada

The “Silver State” of Nevada will most likely be the closest of all races. Democrat Senator for Nevada Catherine Cortez Masto, a former lawyer, is running for re-election against her Republican opponent Adam Laxalt, also a former lawyer. Adam Laxalt is also the son of former Nevada Governor and Senator Paul Laxalt. There have been conversations about the growing Republican strength in Nevada since Hillary Clinton won the state by 2.4% in the 2016 presidential elections. Democrats have been successful in Nevada in part due to the work of Democrat Senator of Nevada Harry Reid, who held the position for 30 years. The “Reid Machine” is the name used to reference the Democratic Party of Nevada’s organizing and fundraising infrastructure created by the Senator, which helped Democrats win the governorship for the first time in 20 years, flip the other senatorial seat long held by a republican, expand their majorities in the state legislature, and got Catherine Cortez Masto elected as the first Latina in the Senate. Harry Reid died in December of 2021, making 2022 the first election that the “Reid Machine” is without its creator. This has created a lot of uncertainty as to whether the “Reid Machine” will be able to hold and give Cortez Masto a win. Republicans in Nevada see this as the perfect opening to retake power in the state. Democrats are heavily dependent on Mail voting and in person voting in Clark County, which houses Las Vegas. The usual voter behavior in Nevada is that Early Votes tend to be Democrat leaning, while Election Day votes tend to be Republican leaning. This has essentially created a pattern in which Democrats need to win the Early Vote in Clark County by as much as possible to be able to withstand the heavily Republican vote on Election Day. Normally, a Democratic candidate with a 10% or more advantage in Early Voting in Clark County numbers is in the safe to win the state. President Biden went into Election Day with an Early Vote advantage of 9.5% in Clark County, which was then reduced to his winning state margin of 2.5% after Election Day votes were counted. As of November 7th, 2022, Democrats have an 8.5% advantage in the Early Vote in Clark County. It is impossible to 100% accurately guess how many voters will turn up to vote on Election Day and exactly by how much Republicans will win (especially after heavy snow weather is expected in the state on Election Day) but Republicans are in a very good position to win, or at the very least make it extremely closed. If we take state polls, we might be able to expect an Election Day turn out of around 220,000 voters. The winning margin on Election Day shouldn’t be bigger than it was on Election Day 2020, since more Democrats and younger voters will be going to vote on Election Day, but it should still be won by Republicans. The 220,000 turnout on Election Day 2022 would be almost twice as big as Election Day in 2020, which is good news for Republicans since they won’t have to win by as big of a margin to be able to win the race or make it competitive. With everything said, I still think the “Reid Machine” will hold on, and Democrats will barely win; most likely with somewhere between 0.2% and 0.8%. Catherine Cortez Masto should get around 49.2% of the vote, while Laxalt should be at around 48.8%. With a race this close, do not be surprised if Laxalt is able to win with a very close margin, this one is definitely a nail-biter.

Pennsylvania

The Commonwealth of Pennsylvania has one of the most interesting and close races this cycle. An open Senate seat opened up when Republican Senator Pat Toomey announced his retirement, prompting both parties to see Pennsylvania as a crucial state to win in order to have Senate control. The Democrat primaries were won by Lieutenant Governor John Fetterman, while T.V. personality and Trump endorsed Dr. Mehmet Oz won a very close Republican Primary. Fetterman would suffer a major stroke in May of 2022, which has created a lot of uncertainty about his mental capability to serve. His doctor has come out and said that he has full control of his brain function, comprehension, and logical thinking, thus fully mentally capable to serve as senator, but he has been recuperating from an auditory processing disorder. While Fetterman’s doctor has come out and said he is fit to serve, the Fetterman campaign has refused calls to release the medical examinations to the public. While the auditory processing disorder Fetterman sustained after the stroke seems to be temporary and Fetterman has been improving, it has worsen his standing in the race. Fetterman needs a level of accommodation while having conversations or debates. This accommodation is essentially a machine that takes in what the interviewer or debater said and make it into subtitles for Fetterman to read and then answer. Republican candidate Mehmet Oz also hasn’t had a smooth sailing campaign. Mr. Oz is very dislike in Pennsylvania, with an approval rating of only 36.3% and a disapproval of 54.1%, which is 1% higher than Biden’s disapproval rating. Oz is mainly disliked by the Pennsylvania electorate due to the fact that his primary home is in New Jersey, and not Pennsylvania. Mr. Oz bought a $3 million mansion in Pennsylvania in December of 2021, then proceeded to run for the Senate in Pennsylvania in the 2022 Republican primaries. This has made him seen as an opportunistic outsider who doesn’t care about the well-being of Pennsylvania, and his only interest is on getting to Congress by any means necessary. While Fetterman had a substantial lead in the polls through summer, Oz has been able to unify the Republican base, making the race much more competitive as questions regarding Fetterman’s health and ability to serve arose. The two candidates would go head-to-head in a Debate on October 25th, 2022. The debate essentially put a candidate with an auditory processing disorder to answer highly complicated policy questions in very limited time in the national spotlight against a good debater and not camera-shy candidate. It would be an underestimation to say that Republican Oz was the decisive winner. The debate reminded me to the John F. Kennedy vs Nixon debate, in which Kennedy controlled the stage with confidence, while Nixon struggled due to his situation with his recent knee injury. The question is, will Oz be able to surpass Fetterman and win the race thanks to his debate performance, the same way Kennedy surpassed Nixon in 1960? Probably not. While the debate was a major win for the Oz campaign, it kicked Fetterman’s grassroot movement into hyperdrive, raising a substantial amount of money after the debate. Fetterman’s grassroot voters are his strongest weapon in the race. There’s also a down ballot effect that Fetterman might be able to get some help with. Pennsylvania is also having a gubernatorial election this year, which will most likely be won by the Democratic candidate Josh Shapiro by anywhere from 5% to 8%. Those Shapiro voters could end up trickling down to Fetterman. Pennsylvania Democrats have also had great success in early voting, far surpassing their 2020 margin over Republicans. Democrats won the early vote in Pennsylvania in 2020 by 32.5%, going into Election Day 2022, they are winning early voting by 45.8%. While Election Day votes will be won by Republicans, the likelihood of a smaller margin is what’s expected. When the polls close in Pennsylvania, it will be expected that Mehmet Oz will have the advantage, while Fetterman inches closer and closer every hour. This is due to the fact that it is Pennsylvania law that mail ballots are not counted until 7:00am on Election Day, which makes it so that Republican leaning Election Day ballots get counted before heavily Democrat mailed in ballots. The Pennsylvania Senate race between Fetterman and Oz will be very close, with Fetterman winning somewhere between 0.5% and 1% more of the vote than Oz. Fetterman 49.1% to Oz’s 48.6% is what my prediction would be. With races this close, don’t be surprised if Oz does manage to win in the end, but that would be due to major ticket splitting by voters choosing Democrat for Governor and Republican for Senate, although with the current extreme polarization in the country this type of ticket splitting has become less common.

House of Representatives

The House of Representatives will be won by Republicans in 2022, the question is, by how much? There are a few ways to try and see how powerful Republicans will be early on election night. The first is by looking at the “generic ballot”. The Generic Ballot is essentially measuring which party got the most votes nationwide during the midterm. As of November 7th, 2022, the generic ballot measurement by Split Ticket, which measures the generic ballot by only measuring independent pollsters, have Democrats and Republicans in a statistical tie of 47.1% to 46.9% respectively. This won’t be the result. Usually, the republican party tends to overperform the generic ballot by around 2%, due to the fact that they run a lot more uncontested races than Democrats. For example, you might be a Democratic voter in Wyoming, but when you go vote, the Republican in your district is running unopposed, thus making it impossible for you to vote Democrat. Looking at how this election might turn out; my expectation is for Republicans to win the generic ballot by about 2.5% to 3.5%. In an election year in which Democrats hold only a 4-seat majority in the House, a 3% generic ballot win by Republicans should be more than enough to win back the House. The second way of seeing just how powerful the Republican wave will be is looking at North Carolina’s 13th district. NC-13 is as dead middle of the political spectrum as you can get. The race between Republican Bo Hines and Democrat Wiley Nickels is in what a lot of political scientists classify as “the tipping over” district. This is the name given to the most middle and neutral district in every House elections. Whichever party wins this district will most likely win the House of Representatives. When we take a look at polls of the district, we can see that they depict a close race, which says a lot about the competitiveness of the House. While a competitive district, I think Republicans will win here by about 1% to 2%, closely underperforming their generic ballot average. The third way of seeing how powerful the Republican wave will be is by looking at two districts in the state of Virginia. Virginia’s 2nd congressional district and Virginia’s 7th congressional district are a great way of measuring just how powerful Republicans will be on election day. Virginia’s 2nd Congressional district voters will be picking between Republican Jen Kiggans and Democrat Elaine Luria, while Virginia’s 7th congressional district voters will pick between Republican Yesli Vega and Democrat Abigail Spanberger. Virginia’s 2nd district is in the same situation as North Carolina’s 13th; a highly competitive district. If Republicans win this district, it will be a signal that they will be taking over the House this election. Furthermore, if Republicans manage to get the much more Democratic leaning Virginia’s 7th district, it will be a sign that a Republican tsunami is incoming. When we take a look at polls on the area, I can make the prediction that Republicans will win Virginia’s 2nd, but fall short of winning Virginia’s 7th, essentially showing that while Republicans will win the House, it won’t be by a Tsunami. With all that said, I’d expect Republicans to win somewhere between 225 to 231 seats in the House of Representatives. More specifically, I’d project a 227 Republican seats to 208 Democratic seats House of Representatives.

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