The protests of the Cuban people more than a year ago, on July 11, 2021, have been an important turning point for the fight against the dictatorial regime. The spontaneous outbreak of the protests was a clear consequence of a failed economic system, further pushed to destruction by a horrendous monetary policy, as well as the continued oppression of freedom of expression and the individual rights of the Cuban people. Since the protest, life has only become more difficult for the regime. Although there have been several events that have been a failure (for example, N15), the effect has been like a snowball rolling on a mountain. He has gone from signs of "Homeland and Life" and "Díaz Canel Singao" written in the middle of the night, to an almost daily sample of civil disobedience, especially around the blackouts of the summer. All this while people become more and more connected, not only with the outside world but also with each other. This is a clear sign of progress towards a grassroots opposition, more organized and better executed. There are many serious conversations between our community inside and outside Cuba, about how that opposition should be built, how it should look and how it should behave. Specifically, the conversations focused on ensuring that the protests are not unique, not synchronized and disconnected, but have a strategic purpose behind them. One of those conversations revolves around the Cuban Constitution created in 1940, with the proponents calling for its implementation as a transitional government and others as permanent change. Those who support this proposal are informally known as "The C-40 Movement". The calls for the restitution of the beloved constitution aroused my interest in 2 ways. The first was to find out what the composition of the Congress would be like, taking into account the former provincial borders and the current population of the island. The second was to see if there was a partition of the island - remaining consistent with the six provinces described in the 1940 constitution - that would have an administrative and organizational advantage for a transitional government, considering the current partition of the island. The second one will be answered in a post after this one.
Population details.
Before creating the maps, we must first look at Cuba as it is now. According to the National Bureau of Statistics and Information (ONEI), Cuba has a total population of 11,113,215 as of 2021. The urban-rural division of the population would be from 77% to 23% respectively, with the rural-urban relationship growing exponentially the further eastward we go, as shown in Figure.1.
Figura #1
At the moment, the dictatorial and oppressive regime PCC-Castro has the island divided into 15 provinces and the special district of Isla de la Juventud (aka. Island of Pines). Each of these provinces is made up of multiple municipalities, for a total of 168 municipalities throughout Cuba. The municipalities will be used as building blocks to create the 6 provinces for both maps. The reason is that we have data at the municipal level, which will allow me to combine them in the 6 provinces and thus have data about them. For the first map, I will superimpose a municipal map of Cuba (Figure. 2.) on another (Figures. 3) that shows the provinces under the 1940 Constitution and I will trace each of the 6 provinces respecting the municipal borders. The Constitution of 1940, Title I Article 4, "The Territory of the Republic is divided into provinces and these in municipal terms. The current provinces are called Pinar del Río, Havana, Matanzas, Las Villas, Camagüey and Oriente. "
Figura #2
Figura #3
The Cuban Congress if the original six provinces were reinstated.
Figura #4
The result is shown above (Figure.4.) As mentioned above, this is the closest provincial partition of the map that we can obtain while respecting the municipal borders while replicating the old map. Even so, we can see some differences. The first, and perhaps the most prominent, is in the province of Matanzas. Here we can see three differences. The first is located in the northwest corner of the province, where we see that the Province of Havana reaches a little further east. The south of Matanzas is also slightly different, with Ciénaga de Zapata going a little higher in the province, as well as Matanzas penetrating more in Las Villas in the southeast. These are all differences due to respect for the municipal borders of 2022. In addition to that, the rest of the map also has slight differences, but they are minimal and insignificant. Some important details are Pinar del Río controlling the important port of Mariel, Havana housing the capital of the republic and the control of the island of Pinos, Matanzas having the smallest population, Las Villas having the important bay of Cienfuegos and Oriente having the largest population. With the details of the population, we can build a Congress in accordance with the 1940 Constitution.
The breakdown of the population of the provinces would be as follows.
Pinar del Río (872 449) Havana (2 812 972) Matanzas (700 674) Las Villas (1 582 203) Camagüey (1 316 535) Oriente (3 828 382)
House of Representatives.
The Cuban Constitution of 1940 establishes in Title IX of article 123 that, "The House of Representatives will be composed of one Representative for every thirty-five thousand inhabitants or a fraction greater than seventeen thousand five hundred. The Representatives will be elected by provinces, for a period of four years, by universal, equal, direct and secret suffrage, in a single day and in the manner prescribed by law. " With this we can make the calculations and conclude that Cuba would have a large total of 317 representatives. Pinar del Río would have 25, Havana 80, Matanzas the youngest with 20, Las Villas 45, Camagüey 38 and Oriente with 109. Due to the population breakdown of the East Island, it would be the most powerful province in the chamber, controlling a little more than a third of the positions in it (34%). This would be slightly lower than what the western provinces of Pinar del Río, Havana and Matanzas (39%) would have together. This political advantage for the East is something new in Cuba, since historically it was the western provinces that held the greatest political power. The East would also have the largest rural population, as well as the largest proportion of rural to urban, a great opportunity for rural interest to gain importance in the chamber.
The Senate
The Cuban Constitution of 1940 establishes in Title IX article 120 that, "The Senate is composed of nine Senators per province, elected in each for a period of four years, by universal suffrage, equal, direct, secret, in a single day and in the manner prescribed by law. " Since there would be 6 provinces, the republic would have 54 senators, for a national average of 205 800 Cuban voters per senator, or 0.000004859079933 senators per Cuban voter. This last number is important since it is used to measure how powerful the provinces are among themselves in the Senate. This is done by distributing the number of senators uniformly throughout the province's population, this number is compared to the national average. By doing this, we can see that Matanzas and Pinar del Río would be the most powerful provinces in the Senate, with 2.64 and 2.12 times more representation in the Senate than the national average. This also creates a situation in which the western provinces of Pinar del Río, Havana and Matanzas would have control of 50% of the Senate with only 39% of the population of the republic. This is the opposite of the House and more in line with the historical political power of the west. This western coalition would also be the most urban area of the country largely due to the capital Havana and the city of Matanzas, also a clear contrast with the powerful rural chamber. This creates a geographical balance in Congress between the West and the East, making the laws passed in both institutions and landing on the president's desk have broad support from the people of Cuba, regardless of their place of residence. Geographical balance in a democracy is important since it protects rural minorities and areas that can be politically ignored by the highly populated and politically most powerful urban sections of the country. This partition does a good job of ensuring that all the voices of Cuba are heard and taken into account with the final draft of any legislation in Congress.
Provincial Votes
The Cuban Constitution of 1940 establishes in Title X of article 140 that, "The calculation of the vote will be made by province. The candidate who obtains the highest number of votes in each of them will have a number of provincial votes equal to the total number of senators and representatives that, in accordance with the Law, corresponds to elect the electorate of the respective Province and will be considered elected the one with the highest number of provincial votes accumulated in the entire Republic. " The partition of the island would also have a very important effect on the way the Cuban people elect their president. As indicated above, the process will be similar to the United States polling station. The breakdown of the Provincial Votes will be as follows (adding representatives and senators in each province).
· Pinar del Río (34)
· La Habana (89)
· Matanzas (29)
· Las Villas (54)
· Camagüey (47)
· Oriente (118)
Cuba would have a large total of 372 provincial votes, with a national average of 29,913 Cuban voters per provincial votes (or 0.0000334305085046 provincial votes per Cuban voter). Using the same calculation as before, we can see that the advantage of the western provinces is much weaker due to the effect of proportional representation of the house of representatives. As for the provincial votes, Matanzas (1.24 times more powerful than the national average) and Pinar del Río (1,16 times more powerful than the national average) would continue to be the most powerful provinces, but even more even than in the Senate. At the other extreme, the East would be 8% weaker than the national average, followed by Havana, which is 5% weaker than the national average. Camagüey (6%) and Las Villas (2%) are slightly above the national average.
Bibliografía
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